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Cycles (June 27, 2003)

Posted 5:59 p.m., February 5, 2004 (#8) - Matthew E
Another explanation for why the actual rate of cycles exceeds the expected rate is that players might start performing to the cycle.

That is, if you're just missing a double, maybe you try to stretch that single. If you're just missing a home run, maybe you swing a little more for the fences. If you're just missing a single (and we've all seen this), maybe you pull up a bit on a borderline double.

I can provide anecdotal support for this idea. Both Toronto cycles (Gruber and Frye) were completed when the player concerned 'stretched' a double into a single. The Gruber 'single' was borderline; it was (as I recall) a bloop to right center. He probably would have been safe at second but no guarantees. The Frye single was a double all the way, but the first base coach stopped him.

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